Thursday, April 17, 2014

Robots Versus Humans

As we were winding ourselves up to put together Thursday's edition, our staff noticed a curious yet telling difference in the way many candidates of both major parties are handling complex issues this election cycle.

As the outside funding and dark money groups wind up their candidates for 2014 - candidates that are overwhelmingly Republican - key facts on issues like Obamacare, unemployment insurance, birth control, and the minimum wage seem to have completely bypassed many of those running for office. We say this because of the ridiculous robotic rhetoric we're hearing bleated by candidates, like the comments by GOP Rep. Tom Cotton of Arkansas on the Affordable Care Act, or GOP Rep. Dennis Ross of Florida on making the minimum wage a living wage.

It doesn't seem to matter to these candidates that more Americans want to keep Obamacare and fix the few things that aren't perfect with it, or that Americans from all parties overwhelmingly support raising the minimum wage. They just keep repeating their talking points like little robots, as we're sure their dark money donors want them to do.

This robotic reaction phenomenon isn't only happening to less well-known politicians - or just on the local level.

On Wednesday, President Obama released a statement calling out House Republicans for doing absolutely nothing on the issue of immigration reform. A few hours later, the President called House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to wish him a happy Passover. During the call, the two apparently disagreed about the President's statement earlier in the day on immigration, though according to the White House, Obama's conversation with Cantor was "pleasant" overall.

For anyone who is honest about how today's Republican Party works, what happened next should be no surprise. Like the finely honed hate machine the right has become, Rep. Cantor's staff sent out a blistering press release of their own about the phone call. The Republican Majority Leader blasted the President on the issue of immigration reform, but then effectively guaranteed the issue won't see the House floor for the rest of this year.

Cantor's robotic response to a very complex issue might seem confusing to those Americans who only catch 10-second soundbites on cable news, or quick Tweets and Facebook posts from their friends. However, as Greg Sargent pointed out yesterday afternoon at The Plum Line, there's an important piece of nuance in the actions of Rep. Cantor and his staff that tell those of us who truly care about the issue what really happened yesterday afternoon.

Sargent noted, "House Republican leaders are refusing to even offer, let alone vote on, their own proposals to do something about the 11 million, even though some rank and file Republicans, and some major GOP-aligned constituencies (the business community; agricultural and tech interests; evangelicals; the GOP consultant class) have been clamoring for reform for months or years. The Senate bill is utterly irrelevant to the basic question on the table: Is there any set of terms and conditions under which a sizable bloc of House Republicans can bring themselves to support some form of legalization?"

On that question, we can confidently answer in the same robotic style that so many bought-and-paid-for Republicans are already mimicking: No. Republicans can't do it.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Of Canaries & Cattle

While every legitimate media and information source around the world is keeping at least one eye on the events happening in Eastern Ukraine, we've also been keeping a watch out for other terrorist events. This really doesn't surprise anyone in the media, who remember that mid-April includes quite a few anniversaries of terrorist acts, including the Virginia Tech and Columbine mass school shootings, and the Oklahoma City and Boston Marathon bombings.

Our vigilance this month, and that of others in the media, hasn't been an entirely empty one. We began to notice on Sunday an incredibly stupid fake terrorism tweet from a teenager to a U.S. airline, that finally reached major mainstream media outlets late Tuesday. There were also some suspicious bags left near the finish line of the Boston Marathon late Tuesday, that were detonated by Boston police without harm.

These kinds of incidents may seem minor at first, and may even be unrelated. After a major catastrophe, however, like the information about the Tsarnev brothers the Russian government 'forgot' to give U.S. officials, we're reminding you today that seemingly minor details can often end up becoming the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

With that thought in mind, we want to turn your attention to the hamburger you may have eaten recently, and the quiet giant rumbling through the grocery store that somehow you might have missed.

In case you don't keep as close an eye on your grocery receipts as we do, you may not have noticed that beef prices are now hitting record highs, and dairy and produce are also climbing. In fact, beef prices right now are at the highest level they've been since 1987 - and that price increase doesn't look to be stopping anytime soon. Even if you're a vegetarian, when the price of beef goes up, so do the costs of related items like pet foods and grains - meaning you'll feel the extra cost whether or not you eat that porterhouse.

Not surprisingly to us, the reason for the increased cost of beef right now is a nationwide cattle shortage, brought on by last year's massive drought in places like West Texas. The good news for the future is that the weather patterns for this year throughout much of the United States look less favorable for drought and more favorable for a healthy increase in the size of cattle herds.

The fact remains, however, that this temporary sharp increase in the price of beef may not be just a one-time blip on your grocery bill.

As David Sirota - journalist and professional acquaintance of one of our staff members - noted last year at Salon, studies confirm that humankind could reduce the pace of climate change, if we just ate less beef. Dietitians even recommend Americans eat less red meat overall. The larger issue though, as Sirota pointed out, is that the American consumer's voracious appetite for hamburgers only continues to increase the demand for more cattle. More cattle means more CO2 - which means more greenhouse gasses, and inevitably more volatile weather. Of course, more volatile weather means less cattle being available for our tables - and sooner rather than later, hamburgers costing as much as steaks.

So the next time you look at the unusual weather trends outside, and the high price of beef inside the restaurant or grocery store, remember - the costs for that quarter-pounder could be far higher in the long run.

Have a salad today. Save the hamburgers for the future.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Perception And Reality

With the blast of snow that's been rolling across much of the U.S. the last few days, it's easy to see how many Americans might think Mother Nature may have taken one too many sips of Nyquil in trying to fight off spring fever. The fact is, the calendar is correct and the current season in the U.S. is spring, which means it's time for events like prom and tax day - the latter of which is today.

Much like tax day, high school proms have rarely been drama-free, especially for the parents and grandparents of high-strung high schoolers. These days, prom isn't exactly a cheap event either, as Visa's annual prom spending survey has proven once again. This year's survey shows that the national spending average for prom is over $1000 on both the East and West Coasts - enough that you might just see a few parents panhandling for extra dollars for their kid's prom experience this year.

When you take a second look at the costs of prom around the nation this year, things may not be as bad they seem. The good news is that the national average amount parents and teens will spend has dropped 14%, the first time it has decreased in three years. That's a statistical fact that runs counter to both the claims of teenagers, and the claims of many fear mongers in the media today.

In a similar way, millions of Americans believe federal taxes in America are too high, as a Gallup poll confirmed on Monday. Much like the perception of prom costs, the facts about our American federal taxes don't exactly match with the opinions of most Americans - or the rhetoric they hear on cable "news" channels.

The CBO confirmed those facts this week noting that effective Federal tax rates - what Americans ACTUALLY pay, after all the deductions and credits are added up - are near historic lows. In fact, the historical trend for individual tax payers in America appears to be moving downward.

Further, the argument that those on the political right make - that poor people don't REALLY pay taxes - is in fact, antithetical to the facts. As Matthew Yglesias shows at Vox.com, when you look at the sources of Federal Tax Revenue, Payroll Tax and Personal Income tax - two of the biggest kinds of taxes the working poor in America pay - also happen to account for the overwhelming majority of federal revenue.

As Yglesias goes on to show, with help from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, only 14.4% of Americans pay neither income or payroll taxes. Most of those people - nearly 10% - are elderly, while most of the other 4.4% have annual incomes under $20,000.

As Paul Waldman noted at The American Prospect yesterday, there are even more reasons to cheer tax day today, including that U.S. federal tax rates are extremely low by international standards. There's also the fact that - compared to their income - Americans in every income bracket actually pay a share of taxes remarkably close to their income level. Which means that - at least on the federal level, Americans are not really overtaxed.

Meanwhile, amid all this good news about taxes, the CBO also recently noted that the federal deficit has continued to drop sharply - and the overall price of the health insurance expansion under the Affordable Care Act is actually going to cost $1.3 trillion dollars LESS than previously forecast. That mans Americans can put more of those tax dollars towards things our nation needs, like infrastructure investments, police, and fire personnel.

As Waldman also noted, those taxes pay for the things we all enjoy in society - including the salaries of the school teachers chaperoning prom, who will hopefully help that nearly $1000 become a short-term investment that returns good memories for a lifetime.