We began noticing nearly a month ago that - although it's only 2011 - there has been significantly less talk about the 2012 Elections than was the case four years ago. Yes, there's been the inevitable speculation surrounding individuals who never have the courage to run - or would simply quit if they ever did win because the job is too tough. Actual candidates who have the courage to step up and announce, however, have been few and far between - and we're ok with that.
The fact is though, for those people who are involved in the area of media and politics - and that includes us - we do have to begin looking at factors that are molding the upcoming political contests next year.
One of the components that is shaping the vote at all levels in 2012 is what pundits are calling the hispanic factor.
We're not saying that all persons of hispanic background vote the same way, any more than all African-Americans, or all "White People" (who are really many different ethnicities). Each voter is an individual, and ethnic groups do not vote as blocks. That being said, statistics prove there are larger correlating factors within certain ethnic, racial, social, and economic groups than across the American public as a whole.
What the latest poll on hispanic voters and the 2012 Presidential race says isn't positive news for the Republican Party. The GOP's recent history of heavy pandering to the racist, nativist, fringe elements on the American political right looks extremely likely to come back and bite them in the backside next year. And their future beyond 2012 doesn't look any better regarding the latino vote.
The census numbers in places like traditionally Republican-heavy Nebraska bear that out. Over two-thirds of the population growth in the State of Nebraska over the last decade came from latinos. Most of the population growth occurred in and around Nebraska's larger cities, Omaha or Lincoln - cities which already lean toward Democratic voters. The likelihood that the hispanic population growth in those areas will fuel more wins by stronger Democratic candidates in Nebraska next year seems all but certain.
The national poll released in February, and conducted by impreMedia and Latino Decisions, seems to only further reinforce that position. It points out that hispanic Americans of all types overwhelmingly do NOT vote for or with Republican candidates, or for Republican causes - but they aren't necessarily voting in favor of Democratic candidates or causes either. Hispanic voters are often simply voting AGAINST Republicans.
This continued appearance of support of left-leaning politics by hispanic voters isn't because President Obama or Congress effectively and properly tackled immigration problems in the last two-plus years. On the contrary, immigration reform is an area where members of Congress failed to accomplish the goals the President set out for them - and an area where they will almost certainly not pass any effective legislation before the 2012 vote.
The reason this trend is continuing is because at every opportunity to change the historical perception of the Republican Party from an exclusively rich, white, male-dominated political group, the GOP hasn't budged. Instead, those nominal Republicans who have fringe ideas, sometimes bordering on racism, have been allowed to take control of their party's reins of power, and force GOP party-line support for issues like Arizona's race-baiting and questionably legal anti-immigrant bill.
The GOP can't say it's never been warned about hispanic voters and other immigrants being turned off by their political policies over the last decade. We've said it before, as well.
You reap what you sow.
Enjoy the harvest in 2012.
