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Monday, November 28, 2011

While You Were Out... Cold...

After a few days off, it's good to get back in the swing of things - especially if some of that time off involved avoiding certain people swinging at each other and spraying pepper spray. We're not just talking about the cops involved in attacking students and others in the Occupy movement.

Yes, the retail melees among holiday shoppers heated up while we were away, and the Republican party's slugfest to find the "Not Mitt Romney" candidate also continued - though we think the GOP may be punch drunk as Newt Gingrich is now the current flavor of the month.

Attacks on and evictions of Occupy protests have also continued in a confusing and contradictory fashion. And speaking of confused, Europe still hasn't figured out what to do about its collective finances. In the Middle East, Yemen's President Saleh finally resigned, while the second revolution in a year in Egypt sprang up in Tarhir Square, on the edge of their first post-Mubarak election.

Finally, the Congressional Supercommittee proved they were not-so-super after all, as they admitted they could not come up with a budget compromise. This was an outcome many people - including us - had been quietly expecting, the closer the deadline approached.

The failure of the not-so-supercommittee  - which was primarily due to Republican members not willing to compromise - was actually one of the first things that occurred in our absence. It may have landed one of the strongest political punches of anything that happened over the Thanksgiving break.

As Ezra Klein, who kindly kept working over the holiday break, pointed out last week, the failure of the supercommittee to come to an agreement now forces Republicans to face not just one but two sets of fiscal triggers set to go off a year from now.

The first trigger happens on January 1, 2013, when the Bush tax cuts run out, returning tax rates on all Americans to their Clinton-era levels - effectively a $3.8 trillion boost to our nation's finances. The second trigger - caused by the failure of the supercommittee - will trigger $1.2 trillion dollars in cuts, mostly from military spending.

What that ends up delivering to Americans is massively progressive legislation that will reduce the U.S. deficit, while showcasing the failure of hard-line extremists on the right - exactly at the beginning of the 2012 election.

To make matters worse for intransigent Republicans, the President is urging a vote this week by Congress to extend the payroll tax cut for workers and for extension of federal unemployment benefits. Many in the 1% strongly support extending both benefits - because without them, those of us in 99% will stop spending partway through the holiday season, and certainly after January 1. If we in the 99% don't spend, many in the 1% may be joining the rest of us in a tight financial situation far sooner than they'd like.

Congressional Republicans have a choice these next two weeks: vote in favor of a tax cut, along with unemployment benefits, and maybe their constituents won't put coal in the stockings of those congresspersons. Or they could vote against a tax cut and UI benefits - and be Scrooges to 100% of Americans.

No matter what happens, we're pretty sure many Republicans - especially those on the supercommittee - aren't going to end up on Santa's "Good" list this year.