While the level of conflict and the degrees of severity can be debated - and have been previously by our staff - what isn't up for debate is where the next American war is happening. It is already going on, and its location is right here, in America. It's a class war - one where far too many Americans don't even know which side represents their interests.
Our comments today aren't hyperbole. We wish they were.
Unfortunately, the Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court earlier this year is, as we've mentioned before, proving itself to be the kind of full-frontal attack on democracy we feared it could be.
There are still those, however, who think that there's nothing wrong with unlimited outside influences in politics, and that those outside influences should be able to raise and spend as much money as they want to influence our representatives and elections.
Here's where they're wrong - and where the war is really taking place.
In the Citizens United decision, the Supreme Court, led by its activist conservative majority, ruled that unlimited outside campaign spending by corporations or unions "do not give rise to corruption or the appearance of corruption. That speakers may have influence over or access to elected officials does not mean that those officials are corrupt. And the appearance of influence or access will not cause the electorate to lose faith in this democracy."
The problem is, Americans are indeed losing faith in their democracy.
Setting aside the statistical fact that only about 30 percent of Americans think members of EITHER major party can fix the problems we now face, the capability of any organization to buy unlimited amounts of media exposure - and not be forced to tell us where that money is coming from - scares anyone who isn't living in some academic fantasy land.
If corporations are persons, and money is equal to free speech - both positions we vehemently disagree with - and corporations can spend as much money as they want to influence voters, than corporations (and unions, to a significantly more restricted degree) have more free speech than other Americans.
The idea of Americans being equal to one another is the first basic premise of who we are as a country, one from which a large portion of our laws emanate. It's why we have the Bill of Rights, the 13th and the 19th Amendments. It's why we have the Civil Rights Bill and the Voting Rights Act. It's even why we had worked incredibly hard on campaign finance reform multiple times in our nation's history, before the Supreme Court made its fatally flawed decision.
Without the hope and opportunity that any one American can achieve an equal level of happiness and security equal to any other American, there is no reason for us to continue to be a nation.
If that isn't cause for "the electorate to lose faith in this democracy", we're not sure what is.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
Three Weeks - And A Sucker Bet
As of tomorrow (Tuesday), the 2010 Elections will be only three weeks away, and many news outlets are ramping up their political coverage, attempting to tell one oversimplified narrative or another.
Except, as the facts prove, there is no simple narrative that applies to this election cycle.
That's not something you're likely to hear from many of the cable television "news" channels or the radio talk shows over the next three weeks. You will hear it from us, and you will hear from our information sources, like the great team at fivethirtyeight.com.
Over the past weekend, Nate Silver and his team published their latest House forecast - with a great number of caveats. This earned them scorn from sectors of the political media realm, but great praise from us. Nate went over his methodology and reasoning in a second article published on Sunday, but the bottom line from Nate - a former professional gambler - is this:
There are a great many factors that have led to this kind of severe uncertainty; one factor is that significantly more Congressional races have contenders from both major parties this year. Another is that both sides have been actively campaigning for more than a year in most of these races, which is unusual for a midterm election. Another factor is the unlimited corporate money - and even questionably foreign money - flowing into outside political action groups, due to the horribly poor "Citizens United" Supreme Court ruling.
The long and short of it all is this: you'll likely hear forecasts of the number of Congressional seats Republicans may pickup from all kinds of media outlets over the next few weeks, all ranging somewhere in the mid forties. However, the statistics and factual data that Nate and his team - the best in the business - look at says any number around 50 has a plus or minus chance of around 30 seats in being correct. Meaning Republicans could pick up nearly 80 seats - or as few as 17.
So, over the next three weeks, while there will likely be a heavy push from corporate backed media organizations to claim one political party will "almost certainly" win or lose, the statistics and facts say otherwise. It's still anyone's election to win or lose.
Our suggestion to you, our readers is this: If you're looking to make some extra money for the holidays, find one of these overly certain fools from either party - and follow Nate's suggestion.
We just ask that when you win, you remember us - preferably with cash.
Except, as the facts prove, there is no simple narrative that applies to this election cycle.
That's not something you're likely to hear from many of the cable television "news" channels or the radio talk shows over the next three weeks. You will hear it from us, and you will hear from our information sources, like the great team at fivethirtyeight.com.
Over the past weekend, Nate Silver and his team published their latest House forecast - with a great number of caveats. This earned them scorn from sectors of the political media realm, but great praise from us. Nate went over his methodology and reasoning in a second article published on Sunday, but the bottom line from Nate - a former professional gambler - is this:
"One good bet you might consider taking up with a friend this year, for instance, is asking him to forecast the number of Republican gains within a range of ±5 seats. If our analysis of this race is correct, then no matter which number he picks, you’ll be at least a 3:1 favorite to win this bet..."
There are a great many factors that have led to this kind of severe uncertainty; one factor is that significantly more Congressional races have contenders from both major parties this year. Another is that both sides have been actively campaigning for more than a year in most of these races, which is unusual for a midterm election. Another factor is the unlimited corporate money - and even questionably foreign money - flowing into outside political action groups, due to the horribly poor "Citizens United" Supreme Court ruling.
The long and short of it all is this: you'll likely hear forecasts of the number of Congressional seats Republicans may pickup from all kinds of media outlets over the next few weeks, all ranging somewhere in the mid forties. However, the statistics and factual data that Nate and his team - the best in the business - look at says any number around 50 has a plus or minus chance of around 30 seats in being correct. Meaning Republicans could pick up nearly 80 seats - or as few as 17.
So, over the next three weeks, while there will likely be a heavy push from corporate backed media organizations to claim one political party will "almost certainly" win or lose, the statistics and facts say otherwise. It's still anyone's election to win or lose.
Our suggestion to you, our readers is this: If you're looking to make some extra money for the holidays, find one of these overly certain fools from either party - and follow Nate's suggestion.
We just ask that when you win, you remember us - preferably with cash.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Friday Funday: Sixty Years... and Still Smiling
A week ago, we mentioned the birthday of an animated cartoon legend - but we also could have mentioned the sixtieth birthday of another cartoon legend, one that's been in newspapers across America for sixty years this month. A somewhat snarky but lovable beagle, with his small, yellow-feathered best friend, and his owner, a round-headed, good hearted young kid, and his friends.
Of course, we're talking about the gang from Peanuts.
We're not exaggerating when we say that Snoopy, Woodstock, Charlie Brown, and their friends have been a daily part of our lives in one way or another for much of those sixty years. When our webmaster was a child, he received a yellow-covered, thick, hardcover copy of a Peanuts collection called "The Snoopy Festival." When he and his wife lost their home in a fire more than two years ago, he thought his favorite childhood book had been destroyed - until his treasured copy was happily discovered intact in the unattached and undamaged garage.
We've each had all kinds of Peanuts "gear" from stuffed Snoopy dolls to Peanuts lunchboxes. Over the years, we've referenced Lucy and Charlie Brown's "football practice" gag more times than we can count. Don't even ask us who had a security blanket like Linus.
And what would October be without "It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown."
Without giving away our readership list, we have to say "thank you" to certain people involved with Charles Schulz' work when he was alive, and with his foundation now. The work of Mr. Schulz - Sparky, to those who've earned the right to call him that - has more than earned the right to be considered "art" and put in some of the finest museums in world.
Conveniently, if you're near our Washington, DC offices, one of the best museums in the world, the Smithsonian, is currently featuring a small exhibit of Peanuts cartoons and other pieces of Schulz' work. A brand new portrait of Schulz is also now hanging in the National Portrait gallery at the Smithsonian, not far from portraits of other great American heroes, like Washington and Lincoln.
With all of the topics we read, hear about, see online and on television, and deal with in our own daily lives, we could easily become jaded, depressed, angry, or disappointed. So it's comforting when we can open a daily newspaper, or make a short click online, and still see Charlie, Linus, Lucy, Sally, and of course, Snoopy, ready to help us take ourselves just a little bit less seriously.
After all, if a round-headed kid and his crazy dog can look that good at sixty, after all they've been through, there's no reason we can't take on another day.
Especially if that day is Friday.
Of course, we're talking about the gang from Peanuts.
We're not exaggerating when we say that Snoopy, Woodstock, Charlie Brown, and their friends have been a daily part of our lives in one way or another for much of those sixty years. When our webmaster was a child, he received a yellow-covered, thick, hardcover copy of a Peanuts collection called "The Snoopy Festival." When he and his wife lost their home in a fire more than two years ago, he thought his favorite childhood book had been destroyed - until his treasured copy was happily discovered intact in the unattached and undamaged garage.
We've each had all kinds of Peanuts "gear" from stuffed Snoopy dolls to Peanuts lunchboxes. Over the years, we've referenced Lucy and Charlie Brown's "football practice" gag more times than we can count. Don't even ask us who had a security blanket like Linus.
And what would October be without "It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown."
Without giving away our readership list, we have to say "thank you" to certain people involved with Charles Schulz' work when he was alive, and with his foundation now. The work of Mr. Schulz - Sparky, to those who've earned the right to call him that - has more than earned the right to be considered "art" and put in some of the finest museums in world.
Conveniently, if you're near our Washington, DC offices, one of the best museums in the world, the Smithsonian, is currently featuring a small exhibit of Peanuts cartoons and other pieces of Schulz' work. A brand new portrait of Schulz is also now hanging in the National Portrait gallery at the Smithsonian, not far from portraits of other great American heroes, like Washington and Lincoln.
With all of the topics we read, hear about, see online and on television, and deal with in our own daily lives, we could easily become jaded, depressed, angry, or disappointed. So it's comforting when we can open a daily newspaper, or make a short click online, and still see Charlie, Linus, Lucy, Sally, and of course, Snoopy, ready to help us take ourselves just a little bit less seriously.
After all, if a round-headed kid and his crazy dog can look that good at sixty, after all they've been through, there's no reason we can't take on another day.
Especially if that day is Friday.
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