Yesterday might not have meant much to you personally, however, in places from Massachusetts to Texas, yesterday was primary election day - the first regular primary of the 2014 elections.
In other words, for anyone involved in politics, it's 'Go Time.'
For those "on the field" - the politicians, political organizations, and volunteers - now is often the time when candidates seeking to separate themselves from all the other political hopefuls in their own party begin to make promises about all the things they'll do if elected. The problem, of course, is that some of these claims are simply hot air, bluster and promises that one person elected to office could never realistically achieve by themselves.
Not surprisingly, the more desperate a candidate is - even if they're running for reelection - the more likely they'll say or do something stupid. Senator Lindsey Graham was a perfect example of this yesterday, when he made a fool of himself on Twitter, blaming the often debunked right-wing ideological chew-toy of Bengahzi for Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.
When a candidate is forced to explain exactly where they're getting their crazy ideas, or how - exactly - they expect to put into action the claims they float during election season, many candidates simply have no clue of how they'll answer. Most candidates today are thankful then, since many of today's media members are either starry-eyed or incompetent and won't ever ask them the questions that might burst their election balloons.
Thankfully, some of our more talented colleagues in the media like Greg Sargent at The Plum Line have been watching the electoral baseline for 2014 for some time now, in preparation of this year's elections. Frankly, we don't think the election looks as good for Republicans as many other pundits are claiming.
As Sargent pointed out Tuesday morning, and as Alan Abramowitz pointed out last Thursday, Republicans enter the 2014 midterm elections with a significant structural advantage. Six years ago, President Obama and a wave of Democratic candidates swept into office - and many of the elections they won were in seats that only marginally leaned towards those Democratic candidates. Now, many of those same Democratic politicians have to defend the seats they won six years ago - and it's likely they'll lose more than a few of them.
That said, as Sargent also noted, Democrats hold a significant advantage on both key issues and overall image. In other words, as the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll confirmed, Americans agree more with Democrats than Republicans on a host of key issues.
One of those issues for Republicans - in fact, the single biggest issue they've built their 2014 campaigns on - has been Obamacare. Unfortunately, as Sargent has also been noting lately, Republicans are now in a serious bind on that very issue.
In short, with every day Obamacare is in effect, Americans continue to like and accept Obamacare more. In addition, after five years of floating their hot air about "repeal and replace", Republicans still don't have a realistic replacement for Obamacare - and most Americans are no longer in favor of repealing the law.
As Sahil Kapur of TPM points out, that may mean Republicans' biggest single political weapon may be effectively worthless in the 2014 races - a prospect that could significantly change a large number of final outcomes by the time this fall's General Election rolls around, as the hot air and trial balloons holding up Republicans bursts.
We might suggest that Republicans - and the media pundits blowing hot air up their shorts - start planning on a different strategy for the fall. Somehow, we just don't think candidates constantly asking members of the media "What kind of question is that?" is going to end up with them winning big in November.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
Bird-Brained Expectations
After the latest - and hopefully last - blast of winter from Mother Nature that had the nation's capitol on lockdown Monday, Congress and most of Washington, DC will technically get back to work today. We're not expecting much in the way of actual accomplishments though, in large part because the outcome of today's big announcement by President Obama has already been written - literally.
Like the whining we've heard from billionaires lately, the cliched way many on the right are questioning Obama's "toughness" in handing the Ukraine/Russian conflict, or the way some airlines are changing their passenger benefit plans, neither the outcome or the events themselves should be particularly surprising to anyone who has paid any real attention to current events.
In case you're someone who doesn't travel much, recently Delta airlines announced some big changes to their frequent flyer program. In short, their program will no longer reward those who fly the most miles. Instead their new program will benefit those flyers who spend the most money, regardless of how many miles they fly. United made a similar change that just went into effect last month.
Frankly, the way the corporate structure of the airlines has become, this frequent flyer change shouldn't be surprising to anyone. The airlines want more money from fewer people - and the market incentives have been adjusted to reward those airline corporations for acting that way.
Like being surprised that birds who fly through the air occasionally poop on the people below, no one should be surprised that airlines are focused almost entirely on profit these days. In a similar way, some of our colleagues in the national media seem unusually excited about the President's budget announcement, though we're not sure why.
In case you hadn't heard, President Obama and his White House team are rolling out yet another major policy prescription today, namely the 2015 White House budget proposal. The President's budget will call for an end to austerity, and a significant increase in investment in America's infrastructure, which would create a significant number of short- and mid-term jobs.
Not surprisingly, Republicans in Congress have their own budget plan, which screws the poor and working class and rewards the rich, much like the frequent flyer programs from the airlines. Of course, there are those who will tout that both President Obama and Rep. Paul Ryan's plans include expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit. However, only President Obama's plan will include proven efforts to boost jobs and boost the minimum wage - an idea even Warren Buffett noted in supportive comments this week.
With all these good ideas flying around, and politicians on Capitol Hill getting back to work, if you're an optimistic person, you might think something - even something small - might get accomplished in Washington, DC.
As we noted at the start of today's commentary, that's not likely going to happen.
Lori Montgomery reminded us in Wonkblog on Monday, when Congress signed the latest budget deal, they signed a deal that set the spending levels for two years, through fiscal 2015. Montgomery noted this while also reminding anyone wise enough to pay attention that Senator Patty Murray announced on Friday that Senate Democrats see no need to waste time drafting a budget this year, since the deal they just signed with Republicans was for two years.
In short, nothing is going to happen on the federal budget - which really shouldn't surprise anyone who's been paying attention to the budget battles in our federal government.
To have any other kind of expectations about how our government "works" right now is, sadly, to have completely unrealistic expectations.
Like the whining we've heard from billionaires lately, the cliched way many on the right are questioning Obama's "toughness" in handing the Ukraine/Russian conflict, or the way some airlines are changing their passenger benefit plans, neither the outcome or the events themselves should be particularly surprising to anyone who has paid any real attention to current events.
In case you're someone who doesn't travel much, recently Delta airlines announced some big changes to their frequent flyer program. In short, their program will no longer reward those who fly the most miles. Instead their new program will benefit those flyers who spend the most money, regardless of how many miles they fly. United made a similar change that just went into effect last month.
Frankly, the way the corporate structure of the airlines has become, this frequent flyer change shouldn't be surprising to anyone. The airlines want more money from fewer people - and the market incentives have been adjusted to reward those airline corporations for acting that way.
Like being surprised that birds who fly through the air occasionally poop on the people below, no one should be surprised that airlines are focused almost entirely on profit these days. In a similar way, some of our colleagues in the national media seem unusually excited about the President's budget announcement, though we're not sure why.
In case you hadn't heard, President Obama and his White House team are rolling out yet another major policy prescription today, namely the 2015 White House budget proposal. The President's budget will call for an end to austerity, and a significant increase in investment in America's infrastructure, which would create a significant number of short- and mid-term jobs.
Not surprisingly, Republicans in Congress have their own budget plan, which screws the poor and working class and rewards the rich, much like the frequent flyer programs from the airlines. Of course, there are those who will tout that both President Obama and Rep. Paul Ryan's plans include expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit. However, only President Obama's plan will include proven efforts to boost jobs and boost the minimum wage - an idea even Warren Buffett noted in supportive comments this week.
With all these good ideas flying around, and politicians on Capitol Hill getting back to work, if you're an optimistic person, you might think something - even something small - might get accomplished in Washington, DC.
As we noted at the start of today's commentary, that's not likely going to happen.
Lori Montgomery reminded us in Wonkblog on Monday, when Congress signed the latest budget deal, they signed a deal that set the spending levels for two years, through fiscal 2015. Montgomery noted this while also reminding anyone wise enough to pay attention that Senator Patty Murray announced on Friday that Senate Democrats see no need to waste time drafting a budget this year, since the deal they just signed with Republicans was for two years.
In short, nothing is going to happen on the federal budget - which really shouldn't surprise anyone who's been paying attention to the budget battles in our federal government.
To have any other kind of expectations about how our government "works" right now is, sadly, to have completely unrealistic expectations.
Monday, March 3, 2014
Cold Truth Can Be A Bear
What's happening both inside the U.S., and around the world in the Ukraine, is a bear of a situation today.
Here at home, the Eastern half of the country, from Kansas and Oklahoma to Washington, DC, and northward up the Atlantic Coast, began experiencing what is hopefully the last blast of bitter cold and snow this weekend. The predicted snowstorm in Washington, DC today already gave Congress yet another excuse for not doing anything, as the nation's capitol is almost completely shut down today. To say this weather is a bear is a serious understatement - at least from the half of the country that's had more than its fair share of winter this year.
What's happening abroad, however, is a whole different kind of bear - a Russian bear, specifically, that some journalists like Russian experts Julia Ioffe and Fred Kaplan have been expecting for some time.
In case you missed the news this past weekend, Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine, an area of the world current Russian President Vladimir Putin has never really acknowledged was its own nation. That invasion - in the wake of the Winter Olympics and just before the start of the Paralympic Winter Games - also happened in the midst of a Ukrainian uprising, which has included the ouster of their most recent corrupt President, and a revolt against the interim government by Ukrainians in the Western half of Ukraine, centered in the Crimean region.
Another way to put it might be that Russia has finally gotten into the geopolitical game Vladimir Putin has been itching to enter for years - and now, they're playing keep-away with the future of the Ukraine.
Worldwide political reactions, and those in the U.S. especially, have been so textbook typical, Kevin Drum of Mother Jones outlined many of those events Saturday morning, before most of of them had occured.
From Putin's belligerence, to Republicans demanding the U.S. do something (Anything but send troops, of course - it's an election year), to President Obama denouncing Putin's actions and calling Putin on the phone, to journalists admitting the truth that America's options to force Russia to do anything are extremely limited, Drum nailed exactly the series of events that have been happening this weekend.
What Drum said of course, could be summed up simply: There's nothing truly unexpected about these circumstances. Indeed, as we already mentioned, Julia Ioffe notes that most of the West should have seen this coming long ago. Vladimir Putin has always been pessimistic, opportunistic, and hungry to return Russia effectively to the size, scope, and nature it was during the heyday of the Soviet Union.
As Sam Tannenhaus and others wrote about over the weekend, many in the political media are once again referring to the Cold War and thinking of this latest action as a whole new chapter in the long standoff between Moscow and Washington, DC. As Tannenhaus also makes clear, however, thinking of this new conflict in that framework - and indeed thinking of the original Cold War through that prism - is a mistake.
The Ukrainian conflict going on now is no more a controlled proxy war between the West and Russia than Syria is. Like Syria, the people of the Ukraine have complex loyalties, generated over many, many hundreds of years, and no one truly knows what differing groups of nominally Ukrainian people will do.
While the Russian bear can and will play keep-away with the future of Ukranians for the immediate future, the cold, messy, ugly truth is that - regardless of what either Russia or the U.S. does - Ukrainians can and will make their own decisions as to their ultimate future.
Sometimes the bear bites first - but someday, likely soon, Ukrainians WILL bite back. To think all Ukrainians will simply side with Russia at the threat of Russia's military is to ignore everything that has happened in that region over the last thirty years.
Here at home, the Eastern half of the country, from Kansas and Oklahoma to Washington, DC, and northward up the Atlantic Coast, began experiencing what is hopefully the last blast of bitter cold and snow this weekend. The predicted snowstorm in Washington, DC today already gave Congress yet another excuse for not doing anything, as the nation's capitol is almost completely shut down today. To say this weather is a bear is a serious understatement - at least from the half of the country that's had more than its fair share of winter this year.
What's happening abroad, however, is a whole different kind of bear - a Russian bear, specifically, that some journalists like Russian experts Julia Ioffe and Fred Kaplan have been expecting for some time.
In case you missed the news this past weekend, Russia invaded Eastern Ukraine, an area of the world current Russian President Vladimir Putin has never really acknowledged was its own nation. That invasion - in the wake of the Winter Olympics and just before the start of the Paralympic Winter Games - also happened in the midst of a Ukrainian uprising, which has included the ouster of their most recent corrupt President, and a revolt against the interim government by Ukrainians in the Western half of Ukraine, centered in the Crimean region.
Another way to put it might be that Russia has finally gotten into the geopolitical game Vladimir Putin has been itching to enter for years - and now, they're playing keep-away with the future of the Ukraine.
Worldwide political reactions, and those in the U.S. especially, have been so textbook typical, Kevin Drum of Mother Jones outlined many of those events Saturday morning, before most of of them had occured.
From Putin's belligerence, to Republicans demanding the U.S. do something (Anything but send troops, of course - it's an election year), to President Obama denouncing Putin's actions and calling Putin on the phone, to journalists admitting the truth that America's options to force Russia to do anything are extremely limited, Drum nailed exactly the series of events that have been happening this weekend.
What Drum said of course, could be summed up simply: There's nothing truly unexpected about these circumstances. Indeed, as we already mentioned, Julia Ioffe notes that most of the West should have seen this coming long ago. Vladimir Putin has always been pessimistic, opportunistic, and hungry to return Russia effectively to the size, scope, and nature it was during the heyday of the Soviet Union.
As Sam Tannenhaus and others wrote about over the weekend, many in the political media are once again referring to the Cold War and thinking of this latest action as a whole new chapter in the long standoff between Moscow and Washington, DC. As Tannenhaus also makes clear, however, thinking of this new conflict in that framework - and indeed thinking of the original Cold War through that prism - is a mistake.
The Ukrainian conflict going on now is no more a controlled proxy war between the West and Russia than Syria is. Like Syria, the people of the Ukraine have complex loyalties, generated over many, many hundreds of years, and no one truly knows what differing groups of nominally Ukrainian people will do.
While the Russian bear can and will play keep-away with the future of Ukranians for the immediate future, the cold, messy, ugly truth is that - regardless of what either Russia or the U.S. does - Ukrainians can and will make their own decisions as to their ultimate future.
Sometimes the bear bites first - but someday, likely soon, Ukrainians WILL bite back. To think all Ukrainians will simply side with Russia at the threat of Russia's military is to ignore everything that has happened in that region over the last thirty years.
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